The candidates have been chosen. The stage is set for a ruthless contest. The endorsements are beginning to roll in – some in the form of a tentative trickle, others, a steady stream finally released after months of teased uncertainty. Next week marks the start of the national conventions, where each party will officially announce their candidate, thus launching the next phase of this unpredictable election. Between the fervour of the primaries and the formality of the conventions, attention shifts to a final source of speculation: the running mates.  

Vice president of the United States is a curious role. The title suggests great importance but yields little actual power. In response to the buzz surrounding this season’s picks, Frank Bruni of The New York Times weighed in that “its impact on the election is close to non-existent”.  According to Bruni, Trump and Clinton are already so well known that most voters’ opinions of them are fixed, with running mates amounting to “really (…) just garnishes.”

So are the guessing games being encouraged by the media the result of hot air? Not necessarily.   A recent Pew Research survey revealed “satisfaction with the choice of candidates is at its lowest point in two decades” with only “43% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans” claiming to be content with the option of Trump or Hillary. Given this context, the right VP could provide a much-needed boost to each party’s ticket.

Some previous vice presidents have played significant roles in both elections and resulting administrations. Joe Biden was considered a strategic selection to enhance Obama’s appeal with white blue-collar voters. Dick Cheney has been credited with shaping George W. Bush’s foreign agenda. History tells us that a VP pick is not always inconsequential; if chosen carefully a running mate can increase the popularity of a presidential candidate at a vital point in the political calendar.

Hillary Clinton’s major weakness heading into the election is likeability. The former Secretary of State is repeatedly accused of being untrustworthy and robotic. Selecting a running mate with an established support-base could inject some enthusiasm into her campaign. Glowing endorsements from President Obama and Senator Elizabeth Warren have already benefitted Clinton’s image, even in the face of a damning FBI report on her use of a private email server while in office, released earlier this month.

Senator Warren herself is one of the names being touted in the press as a possible VP for Hillary. A popular figure among progressive Democrats, as VP Warren could attract former Sanders supporters to Clinton’s camp, uniting the liberal and moderate wings of the party. However, given Warren’s charisma and superior oratory skills, Clinton might risk being overshadowed on the political stage. The Massachusetts Senator’s tough stance toward the financial industry could also sever Hillary’s strong ties with Wall Street donors.

Other options on the Democratic side include Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown (candidates from swing states come with obvious advantages) and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. The latter’s centrist politics and pro-life stance could lure moderate Republicans disillusioned by their party’s (albeit reluctant) embrace of Donald Trump. However, neither would make as powerful a statement as Warren. An all-female ticket would enable Hillary to rouse some of the excitement that voters seem to be craving from her this election season.

Donald Trump’s Achilles heel is his lack of political experience. A VP with Washington insider credentials would bring a sense of stability and establishment approval to his somewhat unconventional campaign. Accordingly, Trump’s team are vetting established politicians including Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.

A problem for Trump is that a number of leading figures within the party are unwilling to formally align themselves with him, thus his pool of popular Republican politicians is limited. It has been a struggle to confirm speakers for the upcoming convention, let alone persuade party insiders to run alongside Trump on the ballot. What will be interesting to note in the upcoming months is how far the Republican VP candidate is able to influence Trump. It would likely broaden the appeal of the Republican ticket if an experienced politician appeared to have significant input in the campaign.

While the press may exaggerate the importance of the imminent VP announcements, as Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s reluctant Vice President Selina Meyer is reminded in HBO’s Veep: “[you’re] one aneurysm away from the presidency!” This reality is considered a major factor in the failure of John McCain’s 2008 campaign, as voters squirmed at the idea of Sarah Palin getting her hands on the nuclear codes. Indeed, not all vice presidents are destined to be irrelevant – just ask Harry Truman or Lyndon Johnson.

Will this election’s VPs prove to be VIPs?

It depends if the presidential candidates are feeling cautious or brave.

 

Header image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons