Denial is a powerful thing. Thus far 2016 has been the year many of us refused to acknowledge that the Trump train was hurtling full steam ahead towards its final destination. We kept our blinkers on and smiled confidently, even as the smoke from its engine caused us to choke and wince in disgust.

A reminder: 

 January: “These popularity ratings are just a fluke!”

February: “I-It’s fine, said state has always swung toward the more extreme candidate…”

March: “Won’t this be funny to look back on in April?!”

April: “SEE! There’s that Cruz momentum I’ve been talking about.”

May: “Kasich is dropping out?? …And I care?!”

It’s almost impressive, the narrative we weave to shield ourselves from the terrifying truth. I only hope we can whip up the same bravado when the nuclear Armageddon President Trump launches on a whim – perhaps because a random ambassador insults his golf swing – begins to escalate.

As of Tuesday night we can bury our heads in the sand no longer. After Trump claimed yet another victory, this time in Indiana, Ted Cruz accepted that bridging the delegate gap was becoming impossible and dropped out of the race. The following day John Kasich, whose presence by this point was purely ornamental, announced he too was suspending his campaign. And so we are left with Donald Trump as the only remaining candidate for the Republican nomination. Cue much hat-eating and frantic re-writing of general election predictions from the pundits.

But how did we get here? It seemed to start out like any other Republican candidate offering – albeit a little more crowded than usual: you had your establishment figures, a couple of popular conservative commentators, a libertarian thrown in for good measure and, of course, the celebrity. Trump immediately hogged a lot of media attention, mainly because he was familiar, outrageous and speaking the loudest. Perhaps because of the over-crowded nature of the field the businessman continued to bask in the limelight for some time – and the media seemed happy to let him. The remaining gaggle were left to compete with one other to appear Trump’s strongest adversary, while trying to avoid incurring his (sometimes fatal) wrath. A tricky manoeuvre even, it turned out, for seasoned politicians.

Acting as casual observers of this process was entertaining in the early days; it was the kind of spectacle that makes politics enthralling. But then it became apparent that the Trump fanfare was transitioning from moment to movement. This didn’t feel right, the celebrity candidate isn’t meant be taken seriously as a contender (or they at least have to pay their dues as governor of California first).

While we gawked at the unceremonious nature of it all, Trump’s message – though brash, offensive and seemingly ill conceived – was resonating with a certain sector of the electorate. At a time when US politics is striving to address the issues of those whose rights have previously been violated or ignored (African-Americans, women, the LGBT community…etc.) some members of society feel that they, in turn, have been abandoned by the government. This explains why a large section of Trump’s base is white, working-class and male. His support network also includes people who don’t necessarily agree with the controversial things Trump says on television, but admire his business acumen and are willing to take a risk on someone who will shake up the status quo. In many ways Trump is the ultimate anti-politician in a context where Washington insiders and political correctness are increasingly loathed.

Due to the complex nature of the American political system and the outside possibility that a Republican knight in shining armour is being prepped for battle, Trump is referred to as the ‘presumed’ nominee.  If this election cycle has taught us anything so far it’s that to be presumptuous is to be naive.  Nevertheless, maybe it’s time to accept that we’re probably heading for a Trump versus Clinton (I’m all out of hats to eat so I’m throwing caution to the wind with this one) race to the White House.  Two of America’s most ambitious, controversial and polarising figures competing to be leader of the free world.

…Pass the popcorn.

 

Header image by Gage Skidmore via Flickr