Primary season is finally upon us! Political junkies are strapping themselves in for months of caucuses, debates, ballots and more polls than you can shake a liberty bell at. On the other side of the cameras, candidates will be girding their loins for an intense period of campaigning, mudslinging and possibly an FBI investigation or two (shout out to Hillz!). As what has felt like an age of speculating finally gives way to actual votes and measurable results, it strikes one that not a lot has actually changed – at least in terms of the Republican landscape – since election coverage began. We are yet to witness the long-anticipated rise of Rubio, Jeb is still chasing that illusive ‘!’ and Trump has proven himself to be no mere flavour of the week. By this point most of us assumed the controversial businessman would be a distant memory; a vague, ill-advised Republican flirtation, to be brought up only at happy hour with amused nostalgia: “What were we thinking??” they’d gasp between sips of mojito, “Can you imagine?!” – the cry through mouthfuls of chips and dip. And yet, it seems, we may not have to imagine. Indeed, it feels like we’re still careering towards it becoming a terrifying reality, with the party’s establishment apparently unable to step on the brakes.

Do not let the Iowa results fool you into the false sense of security that Trump’s popularity is waning – I use the term ‘security’ loosely as the prospect of President Cruz is comforting to no one except those on the fringes of sanity. Iowa is a state of extremes, both liberal and conservative, and despite the hype garnered from Iowans being the first in the nation to vote the state is in no way representative of the national mood. Past primaries have seen them elect Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, for God’s sake. While Trump’s numbers are dropping, they are not dropping dramatically and second place is highly contested, splitting the remaining percentage between his closest rivals. What is a problem for Trump is that his ego-based campaign leaves little room for defeat, no matter how minor. In Trump’s world he wins at everything and anyone who disagrees/ suggests an alternative/ asks a vaguely challenging question is quickly deemed a ‘LOSER!’ – the most devastating insult in the Trump arsenal. So when on Tuesday night he was technically rendered a loser by the people of Iowa, a change of tactics were required:

Compare this to his reaction when, for a brief time, Ben Carson was polling higher than him in Iowa and catching up in other states:

Trump has been forced to acknowledge that he must to play the long game, a route that allows for some hiccups along the way. Whether this new, more humble version of Trump will be as appealing to voters, or last longer than 12 hours [spoiler alert: it didn’t] is yet to be seen.  It is also notable that Marco Rubio came in third, hardly the strong surge in support we’ve been waiting for, but a sign that he could prove a worthy rival to Trump in some of the more moderate states. This is bad news for Democrats as in a national election Rubio is the only Republican likely to present a significant challenge to Clinton or Sanders.

Speaking of the Democrats, after a poor result in Iowa Martin O’Malley accepted the futility of his position (are you paying attention Jeb?) and bowed out of the race, leaving Hillary and Bernie to battle it out alone. While Sanders’s performance in this first test was undoubtedly impressive (losing to Hillary by a mere 0.3%) it is not the big setback for Clinton’s campaign that has been portrayed by some media outlets. Polls have been showing the margin between the two narrowing for months and Iowa is one of three states where support for Sanders is particularly high (he is predicted to take New Hampshire and Vermont). However, beyond these progressive liberal havens the states become more moderate and ethnically diverse, demographics that historically favour Clinton. We now have a real fight on our hands, with the nature of a two-horse race meaning debates are likely to be far more confrontational and any error from either candidate could prove disastrous.

Can Bernie pull-off an Obama style upset and ride the momentum from Iowa into the Southern primaries? Can Hillary go five months scandal-free? Can Jeb Bush remember the way back to Florida?

This primary season has it all.